Videos

Controlled Defaults in Financial Networks

Presenter
May 18, 2012
Keywords:
  • Markov chains
MSC:
  • 60J10
Abstract
Distress propagation in financial systems may be modeled by epidemics on a random graph in which nodes represent financial institutions and edges the exposures between them. Cascade dynamics may be reduced to the evolution of a multiā€dimensional Markov chain that corresponds to a sequential discovery of exposures and determines at any time the size of contagion. The end of contagion becomes a stopping time with respect to the history of the Markov chain. We study the optimal intervention strategy by a lender of last resort with objective to minimize the size of contagion under budget constraints. Our results show that, in the case of nonā€anticipative information, the optimal strategy strongly depends on the proportion of banks that use short-term financial instruments for funding.