Evaluation and Interpretation of Evidence: What Can Be Done, What Is Done, What Should Be Done. - Colin Aitken, University of Edinburgh
September 1, 2015
Keywords:
- Likelihood ratio
- Frequency based models
- score based models
- Bayes factor
- Weight of evidence
- criticism of the likelihood ratio
- evidence evaluation
- source
Abstract
The goal of this research program is to strengthen the statistical and applied mathematical bases of forensic science. This talk will concentrate on the statistical basis and mainly on the
evaluation and interpretation of evidence. There will be a review of recent statistical
developments to show some areas in which statistical analysis has helped and what can be done currently in assisting, first, the forensic scientists evaluate and interpret their evidence and, second, the courts in understanding that evidence. Illustrations of what is being done will be given with reference to two recent court cases in England, and some publications and activities. The presentation will conclude with proposals for research and education in the context of the legal framework within which forensic scientists work.