In the past four decades, several studies have contributed to improving our theoretical understanding of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TISO) over the Indian Ocean region. Improved theoretical understanding can help improve our models and their predictions of these disturbances. Progress in modeling and predicting the ISO will has been achieved by understanding the underlying complex feedbacks and interactions amongst the earth system components during a monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. Significant progress in theoretical understanding has been achieved, yet some aspects of the theories remain incomplete. Here we will present some of the existing theories that explain the generation and maintenance of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. We will then discuss how stochastic modeling in earth system prediction can help improve forecasts of intraseasonal oscillations over the Indian Ocean region. Coupled air-sea interaction processes relevant to intraseasonal variability (e.g. the MJO, MISO) in the earth’s climate system are inadequately represented in regional and global coupled models. These inaccuracies could be related to the either poor parameterization of model physics or insufficient model resolution to resolve the critical processes. In this presentation, we will present forecast evaluations of a series of medium and subseasonal-range hindcasts to show that stochastic modeling approaches have a significant impact on tropical intraseasonal forecast skill and the statistics of precipitation generated by these storms. This has implications on improving conventional convection parameterization for predicting such high impact weather events as we await the exascale computing systems of the future to resolve convective processes in weather models.