Modeling and control of enzootic West Nile virus transmission: Incorporating avian stage-dependent vector exposure
Presenter
March 28, 2018
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a major public health concern in the United States. While seasonal WNV outbreaks have been widely observed to be associated with the end of the avian nesting season, the ecological mechanisms responsible for this synchronicity are poorly understood. Newly hatched birds, or nestlings, have less feather coverage and fewer defense mechanisms than older birds, rendering them more vulnerable to mosquitoes. While total avian population size increases throughout the season, nestling abundance declines at the end of the brooding season. We investigate how this temporal variation in host stage abundance may structure enzootic WNV transmission with a novel mathematical model incorporating avian (host) stage-structure and within-species heterogeneity in the form of stage-specific mosquito (vector) biting rates. We determine the extent to which temporal fluctuations in host stage and vector abundance throughout the season, along with the differential exposure of these stages to mosquito bites, affects the timing and magnitude of WNV activity as well as implications for public health interventions. Specifically, we explore the viability of nestling vaccination as a new form of control in addition to the widely used controls of mosquito larvicide and adulticide.