Videos

An Examination of Superspreading in Stochastic Multigroup Infectious Disease Models

Presenter
March 28, 2018
Abstract
Heterogeneity in pathogen transmission is investigated in stochastic multigroup models, with one group representing superspreaders. Superspreaders are characterized as those individuals able to infect a disproportionately high number of susceptible individuals. Recent emerging diseases such as SARS, MERS and Ebola are some examples of outbreaks with superspreading events. We apply continuous-time Markov chains and branching process theory to determine estimates for the probability of a minor or a major epidemic when initiated by a either a superspreader or a non-superspreader. We also examine the time until the outbreak is observed and discuss some applications to emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases.